Being Careful What You Wish For

Editorial Comment

This issue of CAT Magazine is our annual Sourcebook edition, and it alwayscoincides with the yearly forecast season, as well as the flurry of newaircraft orders that always accompany either the Paris or Farnborough Airshow.New pilot demand forecasts emerge at nearly the same time, with the yearly everhigher projections typically stimulating a short-lived barrage of industry andpublic media commentary.

True to form, Boeing projects a new pilot demandfigure of 790,000 pilots over the next 20 years – last year the forecast was637,000 - which represents a doubling of the present workforce, and of course oneof the drivers is the corresponding doubling of the air transport fleet overthe same time frame. And that fleet growth estimate is always validated by theannual air show sales announcements from Airbus and Boeing. At Farnborough thetwo aircraft vendors announced firm orders and commitments for almost 1,000aircraft, valued at some US$160 billion, up from the approximate 900 new salesannounced at Paris last year.

With narratives such as these, it is nowonder that many pundits are zeroing in technological innovation being a potentialmitigator to the industry’s human resource struggle. Narratives about a comingnew era that will see single pilot jet transport operations are increasinglybeing heard, including commentary that such developments will help alleviatethe current challenges associated with pilot demand and supply. Farnborough wasbursting at the seams with technological innovation displays, including amyriad of new drone technologies, flying taxis and cars, several programs tore-introduce commercial supersonic transports, electrical propulsion programs -for both GA and airline transport - as well as pilotless aircraft.

As an industry simulation and trainingprofessional, I have long noticed that the yearly aircraft and pilot demandforecasts, and disruptive new technology announcements, never seem to have astrong accompanying training narrative. I do not wish to minimize theprogressive training programs that both aircraft OEMs and individual airlineshave implemented, but asking questions about how more than three-quarters of amillion pilots will be found and trained for this global fleet expansion ison-going, and I am not the only one who has noticed that there are few goodanswers and little sign of national strategies. Further, stories in the media aboutthe arrival of single pilot jet transport operations also do not have atraining narrative, let alone any mention of what type of training andlicensing will be required to operate the apparent arrival of flying cars andtaxis. Will we see the latter in commercial airspace?

The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI)technologies to augment aviation decision making is certainly creating acertain hype, and there’s little doubt that these technologies will have a positiverole in a new generation of avionics. But to suggest that they will help facilitatesingle pilot commercial operations and provide quick “relief” for pilot supplychallenges is premature at best, irresponsible at worst. It’s not that thetechnology isn’t possible - mostly its already here - it’s about safety,training footprints and operational realities. Crew fatigue issues with justone pilot on-board, and flight deck security certainly come to mind, but theentire global training system is based on the first officer as an apprenticestep before taking on the responsibilities of a captain. In long hauloperations the cost of one pilot is marginal when compared to the cost ofoperating the equipment including fuel. And it must be said that public opinionis not supportive - one poll concluded that only 13 percent of respondentswould fly in a jet with a single pilot. Perhaps these respondents were aware ofthe recent experiences with the testing of driverless cars.

In an industry that is necessarilyconservative, reducing cockpit numbers will require enormous testing andcertification, not to mention the cost of both retrofitting fleets and totally newaircraft designs. The regulatory impact would be staggering and the trainingredesign issues eye-watering. The industry cultural change needed to manage sucha new pilot role is a fundamental issue.

In my observation, we always underestimate the complexities of managing significant change. Let’s be careful what we wish for.

Safe Travels, Chris Lehman, CAT Editor in Chief

Published in CAT issue 4/2018