Cadet Training Limbo?

Abandon hope, aspiring pilots? Or a sooner-than-predicted emergence from this trough? Group Editor Marty Kauchak provides reactions from four ATO executives to a major pilot association’s surprise declaration.

Start, delay, discontinue or even resume accession flight training? Aspiring and currently enrolled aviation students in many regions around the globe continue to ponder these choices, with news and data that suggest the civil aviation community’s return to pre-pandemic operational levels is literally taking two-steps forward and one back, almost daily.

Indeed, on the same day, GOL and Aeromexico were incrementally returning to revenue service their aircraft from the beleaguered Boeing MAX fleet, and the US was rolling out its second C-19 vaccine – giving hope to many with pent-up pleasure and business travel demands, suitcases at the ready. At the same time, with the news of a mutating virus in Britain and several other nations, more countries around the world were restricting air and other travel modes.

Adding further turbulence to the community’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic epoch, was the British Airline Pilots’ Association’s (BALPA) controversial warning to individuals to delay their flight training – which, quickly garnered the attention of air training organizations’ (ATO) leaders.

BALPA’s Impedance

In an association document and companion video issued in early November, Wendy Pursey, Head of Membership and Careers Services at BALPA, said, “There are currently 10,000 unemployed commercial pilots across Europe including 1,600 pilots in the UK. Many pilots are working part time or on reduced pay to save jobs. And there are already around 200 trainees in flight training schools who were on a path to jobs with easyJet who now have no clear route to even a licence, far less a job.” She added, “This is not a positive picture for anyone whose heart is set on entering this profession. There will be fewer jobs, with more people competing for each one even once this pandemic is over.” In a clarion warning, BALPA further opined, “In this situation it would be irresponsible if we did anything other than warn people to consider delaying their flight training at this time.”

Of note, BALPA declined CAT’s email invitation to clarify or update its position on this aspect of training, in light of other, almost daily, fast-paced developments, including announcements from Ryanair and Air Alaska of their intent to buy more Boeing 737 MAX jets, and Southwest and other airlines around the globe aligning their schedules for an anticipated, gradual uptick in passenger traffic this year.

Rapid, Opposing Responses

Leaders at four disparate ATOs were in lock-step in their reaction to BALPA’s press release, presenting a contrarian, optimistic outlook on this sector’s emergence from the current economic downturn.

Sean Jacob, CEO, FTA Global, pointed out the aviation industry was booming before the onset of the pandemic with projections for exponential growth spanning 20 years. The industry executive presented an historical-based forecast, noting, “Although nothing can be certain in such unprecedented times, we in the aviation industry have confidence in the ‘bounce back’ of aviation, reinforced by the historic recovery patterns following previous global crises, such as 9/11 and the 2007/08 financial collapse. For more than 70 years, commercial aviation has consistently demonstrated robust recovery (measured by passenger numbers and passenger air miles) following these crises.” Jacob further noted the increase in bookings prior to the UK’s last four-week lockdown, and the recovery in airline and travel company share prices – following the announcement of the Covid vaccine rollout – have demonstrated that there is a latent desire to resume traveling.

Beyond historical precedent and models, economic, workplace and other forces are in play to encourage individuals contemplating an aviation career to follow their dreams – sooner rather than later.

Alex Alvarez, CEO, FlyBy Aviation, noted his ATO strongly believes a career in aviation, and specifically becoming a commercial pilot, is something to be considered. Reflecting on the overarching, early 2021 economic environment, he noted, despite everything that has been said, the truth is that Airbus and Boeing’s backlog (airplanes to be delivered) is extremely high. Alvarez continued, “Maybe not at the record high they were in 2019, but still, it would take them between six and nine years to fulfill all of them without any new orders coming in. That means that the market still believes Covid will eventually pass and the underlying strength of the aviation industry is still there.” Alvarez then looked to pilot workforce dynamics, noting the community should also remember the amounts of aircrews that will retire in the coming years. Citing the CAE Airline Pilot Demand Outlook: 2020, he continued, “Covid has contributed in accelerating this process. Even if we only recover 2019 traffic figures, the amount of pilots required to ‘maintain’ 2019 traffic figures is over 110,000 globally.”

At Skyborne Airline Academy, Lee Woodward, the organization’s CEO, called attention to Boeing’s attention-getting forecast, which predicts 763,000 civil aviation pilots are needed over the next 20 years, and despite significant layoffs in the pilot and cabin crew workforce, the rebound – combined with a prolonged retirement bubble – should see demand for aircrew rise quite rapidly. Woodward further opined, “Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic we have seen airlines consolidate, but equally, continuing to plan ahead, confirming new aircraft orders and expanding their fleets for the future, as with Ryanair’s recent Boeing 737 MAX order and the impending return of Flybe. This shows an underlying level of confidence in the business of air travel which will ultimately drive job opportunities.” He emphasized, “I think it’s important that we inform would-be pilots on the global picture.”

FlyBy’s Alex Alvarez observed that, as completing pilot training “from ‘zero to airline ready’ takes typically more than two years, one can only conclude that it is actually not a bad moment to consider training towards a commercial pilot license.” Image credit: FlyBy.

Eyeing a Resumption of Recruiting

Providing visibility to another emerging trend being closely monitored throughout the community, Woodward said following Skyborne’s “recent discussions with airlines across the US, Asia, Europe and the Middle East, one thing is clear: there is an appetite to rapidly return to previous levels of operation. This will drive pilot demand. At least one major US airline could see a pilot deficit in Quarter 4 2021 if their pilot workforce remains as it is.”

Similarly, FTA Global’s Jacob said his organization “has been assured by major airlines that recruiting will resume as early as 2022.” He noted while those entering into training in the UK (each year) has not exceeded 1,500 pilots over the last 10 years, “despite some redundancies, we still expect a shortfall in the number of pilots required to meet long-term demand.”

Oscar Sordo, Chairman & CEO, FTEJerez, initially acknowledged that with the current crisis, airline recruitment has been stopped across the globe; however, “the indications we have from our airline partners is that, despite the challenging situation, low-hour pilot recruitment, post-Covid, will still be required, at the very least, to replace the more mature pilots who, in light of the current situation, are taking early retirement.” The ATO executive added this situation is expected to start improving in early 2022, with expectations of reaching the pre-Covid growth rate and air traffic in three to four years’ time. He continued, “This comes to say that, by the time an individual can be assessed, commence training and successfully graduate they would be joining the industry in a positive moment, since all of these steps could take almost two years to complete.”

Sordo’s imperative to commence training, and his reminder about the length of the accession pipeline for commercial pilots, are messages resonating clearly elsewhere in the sector.

FlyBy’s Alvarez similarly observed that, as completing pilot training “from ‘zero to airline ready’ takes typically more than two years, one can only conclude that it is actually not a bad moment to consider training towards a commercial pilot license.” The ATO executive provided another important point on the increasing well-being of the ATO sector, first noting, “One thing we are experiencing from our students is that they do believe it is worth it to start right now.” As significant, he added, “Our training courses since last September have had a similar number of students as pre-Covid. In fact, our January 2021 could be the largest group ever. Recovery will happen at different paces in different countries. Several of our graduated students had landed a job in their home countries in the last couple of months.”

Show Them the Money

Whether other members of the broader aviation sector come down on the side of BALPA’s “queue closed,” or the diametrically opposed position of ATO executives working to rebuild the community’s pilot accession pipeline, there is common ground on a closely related issue: government financing mechanisms for student pilot training. This topic has been addressed at previous CAT-sponsored summits and symposia, and remains relevant, given the financial toll the pandemic has taken on current and prospective members of the commercial aviation enterprise, and the challenges of personally funding entry-level training.

FTA Global’s Jacob provided context from the UK perspective, declaring, “We absolutely believe that the government has a more active role to play in supporting pilots in training.” To point, he noted almost 2.8 million students entered some sort of higher education in the UK last year, and the majority would have been eligible for some sort of loan, maintenance grant or bursary to support with their studies. He continued, “Pilots in training are eligible for zero financial aid. At the very least, we would like to see the eradication of VAT on course fees. The ideal would be for the UK to match initiatives in countries such as Norway, where pilot training is recognized as integral to the economy as any other type of education program.”

Elevating the notion of government support for student pilots to a collaborative effort, he concluded, “We recently shared our concerns for accessibility and inclusion in the industry with BALPA, who echoed our sentiments. We recognize that they are working with the UK government to try and tackle the issue.”

At FTEJerez, Sordo offered another important datum point from Europe, stating in part, financial aid should be more in the line of financing rather than subsidies. He explained, “There is a risk that the subsidies will distort the market, so that those companies that have taken excessive risks with their business model will be rewarded, to the detriment of those that have been more conservative and have been able to manage more efficiently. Grants should be awarded with objective criteria, being the same for all operators, and not be awarded on a discretionary basis just to save someone from their impending downfall.” He added, the “discrimination” suffered by pilot training compared to any other training in any other discipline is completely unfair, and, concluded, “There are no public grants, no student loans. It is time that those who decide to take on this professional career can enjoy the same advantages as those who choose other disciplines. On the other hand, it is completely incomprehensible that the training expenses for obtaining a professional pilot's license are not tax deductible, by the student or by any other person sponsoring the student.”

Beyond this “Trough”

Alex Alvarez, CEO, FlyBy Aviation, matter-of-factly reminded CAT that throughout a pilot’s career, there will be peaks and troughs, and this is one of them… “one we will all remember, but still, it will be over one day.”

Skyborne’s Lee Woodward had welcome news for his students and other aspiring pilots, “after recent discussions with airlines across the US, Asia, Europe and the Middle East, one thing is clear: there is an appetite to rapidly return to previous levels of operation. This will drive pilot demand." Image credit: Skyborne Airline Academy.

Yet, as ATO executives revealed, they are looking beyond this latest trough in community history, and are focused on the return to increased operations and strengthened demand for pilots. Alvarez provided part of his business strategy to meet near-term increases in demand, concluding, “Travel restrictions are not allowing international students to arrive to their schools (especially in the US), but we are expanding internationally, opening new bases outside Europe.”

Placing yet another marker on the probability of reopening the pilot accession sooner, rather than later, Skyborne’s Woodward concluded, “I continue to have a very positive outlook for our industry and believe the recovery will occur much quicker than some analysts suggest.”

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