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“Recovery will be quicker than currently anticipated,” according to Avolon, a Dublin, Ireland-based international aircraft leasing company, in its 2021 outlook paper, ’Looking to Recovery’. The paper reviews key trends in the aviation industry for airlines, manufacturers, and lessors, identifying themes that are likely to shape the year ahead and setting out six ‘fearless forecasts’ for 2021.
“Commercial aviation has demonstrated its resilience repeatedly”, commented Jim Morrison, Head of Portfolio Management at Avolon. “It has managed through wars, terrorism, pandemics, oil spikes, and financial crises. Our fearless forecasts for 2021 are premised on this optimism but anchored by the realism that challenging months are ahead.”
Robust Airline Recovery – What Evidence is There?
“The initial economic recovery will be shaped by the authorisation and distribution of multiple vaccines, leading to the gradual re-opening of societies, economies, and borders. This will drive a rebound in air traffic, with the recovery likely to be gradual and uneven. While there will be a renewed focus on domestic travel creating opportunities for airlines in the short-term, many airlines will undoubtedly continue to struggle to survive, with IATA forecasting a US$39 billion net loss for the industry in the year ahead. However, the importance of air travel to society and the global economy over the long- term remains undiminished. Vaccines offer the spark that will reignite the recovery of the aviation industry. 2021 will be challenging but we are now looking to recovery.”
Avolon’s Fearless Forecasts:
The full paper is available here.