Vaccine Injection Boosts US Airlines

Major US carriers and some regionals are ramping up hiring of pilots and other personnel as the vaccine rollout accelerates. Rick Adams relates some of the hopeful signs for a summer travel surge.

With the entire (willing) adult population of the United States expected to be vaccinated by the end of May, US airlines are dusting off parked aircraft and re-hiring pilots, cabin crew and other aviation professionals.

In the past few days, United Airlines announced it would resume hiring about 300 pilots, American Airlines told employees all its planes in the ongoing fleet would return to service by May, and Delta was forced to cancel hundreds of Easter weekend flights for lack of staff.

On Sunday, the US Transportation Security Administration screened 1.57 billion passengers, the highest since March 2020.

The Vaccinated States of America

With the goal of 100 million vaccine doses administered already surpassed (now approaching 150 million), the US has set new goals of 200 million jabs by the end of April and 260 million by the end of May – enough for all of the nation’s adults.

Reports indicate the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 infection after the recommended two doses. The first dose is 80% effective two weeks after being administered.

While IATA, airlines and governments debate issuance of “health passports” for travel, restaurants and other group activities, the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) has started to address vaccinated travelers. The CDC’s 2 April guidance states, “Fully vaccinated travelers are less likely to get and spread Covid-19. People who are fully vaccinated with an FDA-authorized vaccine can travel safely within the United States” and:

All travelers are still advised to wear a mask, stay 6 feet away from others, wash hands often and use hand sanitizer.

If not vaccinated, travelers should “get tested with a viral test 1-3 days before your trip” and “get tested after travel and stay home and self-quarantine for a full 7 days after travel.”

In a survey of passengers who flew last year, Delta said two-thirds expected to have at least their first vaccination by 1 May.

(A recent study, currently in peer review, showed that air “passengers traveling from Covid-19 hot spots at the onset of the pandemic did not spread the virus” across the US, and “that the odds of getting infected while flying are very small.”)

Consulting firm Oliver Wyman's Pandemic Navigator is now predicting that the US will reach so-called ‘herd immunity’ by mid-June to early July… three to six weeks ahead of earlier forecasts. And that the leisure element of US domestic airline travel will be fully recovered by early 2022.

“The combination of pent-up demand, economic stimulus, and access to vaccines is making a difference," said Tom Stalnaker, a partner and global aviation practice leader at Oliver Wyman. "We are still far from a full recovery for the overall industry, but we expect some of the airlines to start turning cashflow positive in a matter of months, particularly in the US."

By mid-March, US travel demand was at more than 50% of 2019 levels, the highest it has been on a sustained basis since the start of the pandemic. Corporate and international travel is still down more than 80% from 2019 and is not expected to recover before 2023.

American Airlines is reactivating grounded aircraft to meet anticipated passenger demand. Image credit: American

United Resumes Pilot Hiring

Senior VP Flight Operations, Bryan Quigley, emailed United Airlines’ more than 12,000 pilots that the unexpectedly strong rebound in domestic travel demand is jump-starting “the pilot hiring process that was halted last year. We’ll start with the approximately 300 pilots who either had a new hire class date that was canceled or who had a 2020 conditional job offer.”

United Airlines expects to have all of its existing pilots working their normal number of hours by May.

United CEO Scott Kirby told the US Chamber of Commerce Aviation Summit, “There’s light at the end of the tunnel. Domestic leisure demand has almost entirely recovered. “It’s really nice to see that human desire for connection is going to come back and come back strong.”

He cautioned, however, “Business demand is still down over 80%, and international borders, particularly for long-haul, are still largely closed. There are huge chunks of our business that are still almost at zero.”

For a profile of United’s pilot training program, see Robert Moorman’s  All in the Family.

AA on an Upswing

Bookings last week through aa.com and the American Airlines app were up 150-400% compared to last year… within a few points of 2019…  and even higher than over the same weekend in 2019. In a regulatory filing, American said net bookings are at 90% of the company's pre-pandemic 2019 average, with 80% of seats filled.

“These are stats we haven’t seen in a year,” Maya Leibman, American Airlines’ Chief Information Officer, shared in an employee memo. “And all I’m hearing from my friends and family are their travel plans for this summer - you probably are too. It feels like there’s this incredible pent-up demand to GO SOMEWHERE!”

She added, “Spring has definitely sprung - you can hear it in the birds outside your window as well as the plane engines speeding down the runway.”

Delta Miscalculates Demand

With over a million passengers in the past few days, their highest since the pandemic began, Delta found itself short of staff and had to cancel about 100 flights on Sunday.

Some employees were reportedly having adverse side effects from their vaccinations. “Delta teams have been working through various factors, including staffing, large numbers of employee vaccinations and pilots returning to active status,” the airline said in a statement.

Delta also suffered hundreds of cancellations over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays last year, in part due to the smaller pool of qualified pilots for the aircraft types for which there was increased demand.

One temporary measure Delta used to re-book passengers was eliminated, for 4-5 April, its no-middle-seat policy in place during the pandemic. The airline resumed blocking on Tuesday but will cease the practice starting in May.

Hiring Picks Up Worldwide

The major US carriers are not the only ones staffing up for the expected travel summer travel surge.

Florida-based low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines resumed hiring pilots and flight attendants in February on a “staggered” basis.

United partner Air Wisconsin Airlines is recruiting First Officers to join their CRJ-200 fleet with bases at Chicago, Washington Dulles, and Milwaukee.

PSA Airlines, a wholly owned subsidiary of American which claims to be the fastest growing regional airline in the US, is seeking candidates for FO positions for their CRJ fleet with bases in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Utah start-up Breeze Airways, which will seek to acquire the AOC of Compass Airlines and launch operations in mid-2021, is advertising for “Captain Qualified First Officers (CQFO)” rated on E170/E190 aircraft.

Avelo Airlines, a charter startup in Burbank, California, is recruiting B737-rated Captains and FOs.

Lufthansa’s new long-haul leisure subsidiary, Eurowings Discover, which will launch this summer, wants Airbus-rated First Officers for their A330 fleet based in Frankfurt.

UK-based charter Titan Airways is looking for a Head of Training, who must be TRE-certified on one of their Airbus or Boeing types.

A few of the carriers looking for non-rated First Officers and/or Captains: UPS (Louisville, Kentucky), Hong Kong Air Cargo, DHL (Bahrain), Sunlight Express (Philippines), Air Tanzania, and Air Belgium.

Cabin crew positions are available at: Frontier Airlines (Denver), Republic (Indianapolis), PSA, Aer Lingus, Ryanair, Corendon Airlines (Germany, Switzerland), GetJet (Lithuania), Aurigny (Guernsey), ultra-low-cost carrier Flair in Canada, PAL (also Canada), Allegiant (Tennessee US), Norse Atlantic, and Fiji Airways.

If you prefer an orbital view, the European Space Agency is recruiting astronaut candidates to become part of the corps based in Germany but with regular postings to Houston (US) and Star City (Russia). Closing date for applications: 28 May.