Honeywell Forecast Shows Quick Rebound for Business Aviation
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Honeywell's 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook indicates that the industry has almost completely shaken off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
It forecasts up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth $238 billion from 2022 to 2031, which is up 1% in deliveries from the same 10-year forecast a year ago. This year, surveyed business jet operators reported a sharp increase in used jet purchase plans, 12% above last year's report, equivalent to 800 additional used business aircraft. Business aircraft manufacturers also announced a strong increase in jet orders.
Some key findings include that 28% of worldwide operators’ fleets are expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up 3 percentage points compared with survey results from 2020. Business jet deliveries in 2022 are expected to be up 10% from 2021 in terms of units billed. The longer-range forecast through 2031 projects a 3% average annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth.
The outlook also showed minimal ongoing Covid-19 impact in 2021. Nine of 10 operators in the survey said their new or used jet buying plans have not been postponed by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Nearly 100% of 2021 respondents said that they had not cancelled and do not plan to cancel a delivery on a new aircraft. Year to date, business aviation usage trends point to a nearly 50% increase in flight hours in 2021 versus 2020, roughly 5% above 2019 (pre-Covid).
"The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than 6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new jets," said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace. "Our latest operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth, as more than 65% of respondents anticipate increased business jet usage in 2022. Despite the ongoing challenges presented by the pandemic, flight hours have recovered and grown beyond pre-pandemic levels. The overall health of the business jet market is strong, and growth is expected to continue."
