Lockdown Measures Claimed Ineffective Against Covid

Economists claim minimal reduction of mortality, but critics question methodology. Meantime, IATA and ACI advocate lifting travel restrictions for vaxxed pax.

A trio of economics researchers from Johns Hopkins University in the US, Lund University in Sweden, and Denmark’s Center for Political Studies have created a firestorm with a report – not yet peer-reviewed – that claims lockdown measures such as school shutdowns, business closures, and mask mandates were negligible in reducing Covid deaths.

"We find little to no evidence that mandated lockdowns in Europe and the United States had a noticeable effect on Covid-19 mortality rates," the researchers wrote.

The authors are:

The researchers identified 18,590 studies that could potentially address the issue, determine that 34 studies qualified, and selected 24 for inclusion in the meta-analysis.

Among their conclusions were that the most effective was the closure of ‘non-essential businesses’ resulting in a 10.6% reduction, ‘this effect likely driven by the closure of bars.’

It appears that the overall impact of all the closures, lockdowns, etc. imposed in the last two years reduced the mortality rate by 0.2%.

The effect of border closures, and the global shutdown of the airline industry, contributed only a 0.1% reduction to the Covid mortality rate.

Methodology Challenged

“They systematically excluded from consideration any study based on the science of disease transmission, meaning that the only studies looked at in the analysis are studies using the methods of economics,” cautioned Dr Seth Flaxman, Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, UK.  “These do not include key facts about disease transmission such as: later lockdowns are less effective than earlier lockdowns, because many people are already infected; lockdowns do not immediately save lives, because there’s a lag from infection to death, so to see the effect of lockdowns on Covid deaths we need to wait about two or three weeks.”

Prof Neil Ferguson, Director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, said: “The policies which comprised ‘lockdown’ varied dramatically between countries, meaning defining the term is problematic… The effectiveness of ‘lockdowns’ came from the combined impact of the multiple individual interventions which made up that policy in different countries and states: limiting gathering size, business closure, mask wearing, school closure and stay at home orders.”

IATA, ACI Call to Remove Barriers

Citing an EU Council Recommendation adopted 25 January, Airports Council International (ACI Europe) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are advocating travel guidelines based on the health status of travellers, rather than the epidemiological situation of their country or area of origin.

ACI and IATA urged European governments to lift all travel restrictions for fully vaccinated/recovered individuals holding a valid Covid Certificate. IATA’s most recent air traveler survey showed that 62% of respondents support removing a testing requirement for those who are fully vaccinated.

“There are no compelling reasons why vaccinated/recovered travellers should be subjected to a different regime whether they travel within the EU/EEA or come from other countries. It is now urgent that the EU Council aligns its outdated recommendation for travel into the EU (from third countries) with the new regime for intra-EU/EEA travel.

“The new regime for intra-EU/EEA travel is right to focus on a ‘person-based approach’ and to recognise that both vaccinated and recovered travellers should not be subjected to any restriction. But having common EU regimes has so far not prevented States from going their own way. This must stop. We now have further proof – travel restrictions do have a significant effect – but it’s not on public health, it’s on economic stability and livelihoods. In short: they are causing more harm than good,” said Olivier Jankovec, ACI Europe Director General.

“The research is clear that the inevitable delay in identifying new variants means that transmission already occurs by the time travel restrictions are imposed. It’s the classic case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Keeping testing in place for vaccinated passengers therefore seems completely ineffective from the health point of view, but damages passenger confidence and national economies. This latest research should give governments confidence to implement the EU recommendation in full, enabling Europe to get moving again,” said Conrad Clifford, IATA Deputy Director General.

Independent research conducted in Finland and Italy “confirms the validity of the traveler-centric approach, highlighting the inefficiency of recent travel restrictions imposed by European countries in mitigating the risks to public health and society posed by Covid-19,” the associations noted.

Analysis by Oxera and Edge Health concludes that pre-departure testing requirements are likely to be ineffective at stopping or even limiting the spread of the Omicron variant. The analysis of testing restrictions imposed by Italy and Finland on 16 December and 28 December 2021, respectively, on all incoming travellers made no distinguishable difference to transmission of Omicron cases in those countries. Conversely, the impact of these restrictions, and in particular the limitations to the free movement of people, resulted in significant and unnecessary economic hardship – not just for the travel and tourism sectors and their workforce, but for the whole European economy.

The World Health Organisation (WHO), in a statement issued 19 January, advised countries to “Lift or ease international traffic bans as they do not provide added value and continue to contribute to the economic and social stress experienced by States Parties. The failure of travel restrictions introduced after the detection and reporting of Omicron variant to limit international spread of Omicron demonstrates the ineffectiveness of such measures over time. Travel measures (e.g. masking, testing, isolation/quarantine, and vaccination) should be based on risk assessments and avoid placing the financial burden on international travellers in accordance with Article 40 of the IHR.”

IATA noted that in the US more than 74.3 million people – meaning at least 22% of the American population – have had Covid-19, “and that is almost certainly an undercount owing to asymptomatic infections and limited testing early in the pandemic. When combined with an adult population that is 74% fully vaccinated, it is clear that the US is developing very high levels of population immunity.”