General Warns US Air Force Recruiting in Jeopardy

The pandemic, obesity, and the economy are making it difficult to attract airmen.

“We have warning lights flashing,” Commander of the Air Force Recruiting Service MG Edward Thomas said in a recent letter to employees. The U.S. Air Force and Space Force are in danger of missing their recruiting goals for the year, owing to a confluence of factors.

The number of people on the ‘Qualified and Waiting’ list (recruits waiting for a spot in a certain career field) “is about half of what it has historically been,” Thomas wrote. And the “lead conversion” rate at which recruits actually sign is also down.

Reasons cited include: high schools shut to visitors during the pandemic; an obesity epidemic shrinking the pool of eligible Americans; and young people’s declining interest in military service.

Recruiters have not had much face time with potential candidates due to distance learning: “Time in schools is at an all-time low,” the general wrote.

The nonpartisan group Mission: Readiness warned about a year ago that 71% of young Americans between the ages of 17 and 24 are ineligible for military service “because they are too poorly educated, too overweight, or have a history of crime or substance abuse.”

The strong US economy also makes it more difficult for the military to compete with the private sector for young talent.

The percentage of young Americans interested in joining the military is declining. It ranges between 10% and 13%, a 2% drop. “America’s youth are becoming ever-disconnected from the military,” said Thomas. He has voiced concerns that young people misunderstand military service, and that America’s growing political polarization is turning off youth to joining.

A 2020 DoD study of Americans aged 16-21 found that only 2% would “definitely” serve in the military in the next few years, and 9% would “probably” serve.

When it comes to diversity, the Air Force has seen the biggest drop among Black and Hispanic males and women in general, Thomas said last fall. A September report showed that one-third of female airmen have been sexually harassed. A December 2020 report revealed that Black enlisted airmen are 74% percent more likely than their white peers to receive an Article 15 (misconduct).

About 501,000 troops currently serve in the Department of the Air Force, including 326,000 active-duty airmen and Space Force guardians.

The Air Force hopes to add more than 26,000 airmen to active duty by September.

“The Air and Space Forces depend on us to ensure the lifeblood of readiness continues through the training pipeline,” the Gen. Thomas said.